★ Climate Change ★ The Smart Grid ★ Universal Basic Income ★ The Automation Crisis ★
Carbon dioxide is mostly meaningless in itself. However, CO2 does serve as vital ecological metric informing us on the general degree of pollution. It’s a red herring and a kind of a straw man. Pollution is the real problem, with downstream effects on biological systems, which are hierarchical, interdependent and incredibly fragile. As such, pollition will exhibit strong second-order and third-order impacts on global agriculture markets already strained by overpopulation. For example, ocean acidification strongly influences the amount of food that can be harvested from the oceans. There is a point-of-no-return for ocean acidification, beyond which it may be impossible for nature to recover.
Our world does not need to deal with billions of hungry people, i.e. agricultural collapse. Instead humanity needs to ensure every last person on the planet is fully enabled to contribute their maximum potential because we need every one. With optimal contribution of net human potential, overpopulation doesn’t burden us. It instead empowers us to reach our full potential.
Climate change and especially its international policy implementations will drive economic trends in the world. It’s nerve-racking for true conservatives, as these are supply & demand dynamics based on government policy and bureaucracy. The resulting dynamics are based on the collective agreement that, however helpful or well-intended, that these activities will continue to provide economic value to industry. Thus, the cynical recognize this as unwise or at least precarious. As the collective policy consensus wavers, so do the actual/expected value and investment returns of specific renewables. This consensus strongly influences the incentivization factors driving supply & demand. As that consensus waivers, all of those products dramatically readjust in perceived value.
This is a bubble in renewables, albeit not in the traditional sense. These dynamics drive a dissonance between real/actual value for markets connected to climate change. This dissonance is retained insofar as certain apprehensions are maintained by international policy. These suppositions of how policy should be implemented originate with the best intentions, but are sometimes misguided and can’t be known to be permanent, looking forward. These policies contribute greatly to economic opportunity – they are beneficial in many ways – but entreprenuers should approach them under the assumption that their value may be erratically dependent on some arbitrary mechanism of international law. Therefore, any entrepreneur should be wary, as their their business entity, city or nation state have little control over these dynamics depending on international policy whims. Since there is undeniable momentum towards renewables and green practices across the world, this will inevitably happen, but its handling by policy-makers dramatically affects the order and quality of trends that emerge.
With few options for efficient risk assessment and effective risk mitigation available to entrepreneurs, international globalist cabals can use green policy to influence dynamics of the global economy towards the application of some large-scale strategy. That is: there is money and lots of it to be had if some group can steer global climate policy. However, the main driving forces behind climate change are not financial, but global industry leaders need to be roped into conversations on climate change policy because without them, nothing will realistically improve and there is significantly greater risk of detrimental economic effects.
Resource consumption analytics powered by the smart grid empower insights including quantified sociocultural behaviors, quantified clusterings of behavior types, and automated psychosocial analyses behind those behavior types. These data-powered insights will become not just possible, but norms. This degree of quantifiable behavior and its level of pervasion throughout life creates a paradigm shift that is like a nightmare scenario for the SEC. We might actually be able to “wrap-around” from automated signals on human behavior all the way to finanacial indicators to reach a point where no stock price is unpredictable beyond a tiny threshold of uncertainty. These financial indicaters include such as stock price or anticipated trade volume. Data empowered by smart grid analytics will offer insight into financial trends unparalleled by social media signals.
There’s an opportunity for monetization of pollution cleanup to which the same corporations who profited off pollution are advantageously postured to profit from the clean up. Those who profited off the creation of these problems should not be the ones draining the tax coffers getting rich cleaning them up. A framework for producing data feeds on global pollution signals from sensors sounds like a great startup idea.
There should be lots of opportunity for business here. Unfortunately, there aren’t many ways to naturally incentivize pollution cleanup. It must be financed through government programs, but as such, it is dependent on growth elsewhere in the economy. Therefore, pollution cleanup is always a net drain on the economy.
Honestly, it doesn’t matter who profits, as long as metrics on pollution continually improve and we stop contributing to it. So if the allure of tax dollars entices corporations to action, this is invaluable in the quest of justice for Mother Nature.
From a pragmatists perspective that exerts sway over industry leaders and conservatives, pollution is ultimately a problem because of the unpredictable response of nature that tends to exacerbate comorbid economic problems. If there’s one thing that business leaders love, it’s being able to count tomorrow’s money today and beyond an acceptable threshold, unpredictability causes more headaches and misappropriated investment then the pennies shaved contributing to pollution. These leaders speak the language of finance, economics and ethical stewardship of their investments. If you authentically frame the debate around those aspects of climate change, you win.
In which ways does climate change contribute towards cooperation and thus stability? It contributes to economic planning and anticipation of demand through faster/immediate feedback loops and high quality data on patterns of consumption, especially energy consumption. Developed states can market their products to contribute to development of nations, connecting them to global markets. At this point, a global framework begins to coalesce, which provides resource consumption analytics. This framework layered on top of smart-grid consumption data provides a fabric of metrics to measure usage/purpose and is essential for accurate assessment of carbon tax offsets. Demand from developing and recently developed nations increases the aggregate demand for high-tech products towards its maximum, where the aggregate demand for these products is highest when penetration of development of nations is complete. Conversely, need/risk for destablization of populations becomes balanced with the an economic need for stability.
Through balanced trade, parties tend to stabalize each other via a economic & political framework for incentivization and mutually beneficial partnership. This economically incentivizes peace and stability, which provides counterbalance to other stress points around the world. This ameliorates potential issues through cooperation and deincentivizes conflict by providing the entire system with net gain through stability and deviation from maximum economic utility during times of conflict.
Conservatives are rightfully skeptical of manmade institutions created to strongly dictate international norms for the purpose of some abstract ideals. This generally confers the power to determine global economic trends related to mission of the institution. Often, this delegates US authority to some institution outside US control. Nowhere is there more capacity for second and third order effects to commerce and society than climate change and energy policy.
Therefore: step one, control the policy; step two, anticipate resulting trends and place bets; step three, profit.
For every sufficiently large financial change to some stock, commodity or derivative, there are ideal trading tactics. The capacity for profit increases with the size of the asset change. The timing of these large liquidity fluxes can be influenced by restraining, accelerating and anticipating climate policy changes both large and small.
Libertarians are distrustful of such artificial and inessential international institutions. Such policy enacts mechanisms expending real resources as costs, but add value according only to transient, manipulable beliefs. This is similar to how people’s belief systems can be manipulated to perceive wealth in the midst of what is only a credit bubble. However, in the case of green climate regulation, the bubble extends to influence all aspects of production and consumption, instead of simply the macroeconomic mechanisms used to accelerate finance of industry.
Carbon policy augments the avenues for stability and circuits for capital flux in the global economy. Yet, it’s not the only policy needed to help ensure consistent opportunities for commerce and finance across the globe. Via mechanisms enumerated in the Paris Accord, states with space, but insufficient industry, could instead leverage carbon offsets as a means for producton in economies where other options aren’t present.
Yes, I’m a conservative who believes climate change policy isn’t all that bad for the global economy.
For example, island nations with large swaths of shallow/placid CZ (Contiguous Zone) and EEZ (Extended Economic Zone) can use the space to produce energy or reduce carbon. As will be shown in further in this series, some of these states are ideal for facilitating space commerce. If the world decides to set up such an artificial international institution to regulate carbon, developing states begin to develop faster and this will generally drive demand for tech products, which should fuel economic growth the world over. The economics of renewables and smart-grid products are interdependent, as each establishes a platform that adds value to other. After a threshold of infrastructure, a network-effect accelerates demand for both renewables and smart-grid products, rapidly increasing consumer adoption rates.
These mechanisms like those of the Paris Accord augment the global economy with a mechanism for liquidity displacement and therefore augment stability. However, these mechanisms for commerce are precariously artificial and highly dependent on trends and specific events in the realm of international policy.
In finance and macroeconomics, the integral of liquidity displacement over time for corporations and states is an important measure of the total displacement and movement of capital. Therefore, if one wants to make money, one must observe global economic trends to identify and predict major liquidity displacements. Smart short-term investments will tend to accumulate slices of profit from each such movement. That is, every time a large sum of captial changes hands, one can alter their asset purchasing tactics to slowly appreciate small slices of those transactions.
How do you do it? By being:
★ In the right place
★ At the right time
★ With the right ideas
★ With the right money
It’s all about accumulating strips of liquidity from major liquidity displacements. Simply observe the integral of liquidity movements between major nodes in the graph of economic players and various aggregates of this: boom, money, and lots of it.
Taking a systems theory approach, these potential connections for capital exchange are like circuits, through which is established natural, balance-restoring feedback loops via potential global economic liquidity/wealth transfers. Neighborhoods of the global economy with low capital flux are at higher risk of precipitating negative economic status, with fewer options for amelioration. These neighborhoods, localities in the geographic sense and in the sense of graph theory, would benefit more from additional mechanisms for capital flux than regions already sufficiently connected. In context of taking care to provide economic stability during dramatic technology shifts, quantifying the connectedness of small neighborhoods across the global economy is incredibly important for a responsible approach to economic policy.
For neighborhoods in the graph of the global economy with low capital flux, in addition to increasing capacity/propensity for capital flux, we should focus on moving capital into the hands of more people. Incredibly important for global economic stability, more circuits whereby liquidity redistributions can rediverted capital back into the hands of people. If one pictures a liquidity flux or capital displacement in the global economy as wealth shifting from one group to another, then one can zoom out and picture higher-order liquidity flux from groups of nodes to others.
In a healthy economy, the rate of capital flux is high, but these transactions don’t leave nodes with low capitalization. However, an economy with a significant amount of wealth in a small group of people can respond in more agile ways to economic crisis, whereas the wealth would tend to be squandered in the same crisis if it were distributed too evently. Socialists, especially in America, tend to forget that no economy is an island and leverage the negative aspects of democracy to unwisely short-circuit economy policy in the pursuit of making things “feel” better. It’s a trap that has played out countless times in history: the people sieze power, but don’t understand the trials and lessons of their purged leaders with generations of experience. Thus, what results is leadership woefully unprepared for the harsh reality of a global economy.
One can use data science to obtain metrics from an economies tendency to fairly redistribute wealth into the hands of many. These metrics could be used to inform investment behavior changes that help fairly redistribute wealth in a natural way that doesn’t involve government regulation and bureaucracy. It would instead inform investors in how money should be invested to help create an economy that fosters prosperity for everyone. This is because, now, we can get much better feedback through data science on how the economy benefits the common person. And if it doesn’t, we know that something has to change and it becomes trivial to demonstrate this.
The point is to avoid forcible redistribution of wealth. Instead, we should architect systems whereby everyone is empowered and wealth naturally redistributes itself. Ideally this will result in an global population is essentially equivalently invested in the global economy. We all must be equivalently invested in technology.
Ultimately, what people want to know is: am I going to have a future, how is my pension going to cover my retirement, what are my options in the pursuit of happiness and will my family feed and shelter my children tomorrow? This is what qualitatively matters to people and, in the context of the economy, they might not understand, but that’s what they care about. Start taking these things from people or undermining their expectation of them and people get angry fast. And rightfully so. Responsible stewardship of wealth is incredibly important.
Carbon tax provides insights into global economic trends, by leveraging the smart grid to help humanity understand how people consume resources, qualitatively and quantitatively. Everyone across the globe should be on the same page with this, so we can all empower ourselves with this insight.
Further, this is where the money is in the smart grid and in green tech. These metrics all depend on the features and level of data, integration and global product penetration. Therefore, policy should universalize the framework for smart-grid appliance & infrastructure metrics, so that everyone benefits. The more various qualities are optimized for metrics, the greater the degree of value that is added to society as a whole, but this value is maximized when everyone is on the same page. Business is about having a set of assumptions about the world that can deliver profit if one acts on them. If policy determines a consistent framework, then other products can more easily add value on top of that framework, but those products depend on the assumption that the framework supports the product. Therefore, an inconsistent framework leads to consistent churn in the competitiveness of viable products, undermining those assumptions that are so valuable to entrepreneurs.
By donning a perspective enhanced by game theory, one can see that climate change is an issue that can only be solved by getting all nations on board. The larger the nation, the more important it is they be on board and remain committed to restraining elements of their economy for environmental conservation. For developing climate change policy, the most important nations today are the US, China, India and Germany, upon which consensus can be built.
Knowing that green policies acting to restrain climate change require the entire world on board to be successful makes the power conferred to these international institutions all the more precarious. With the whole world’s weight behind an international institution equipped with what is essentially the power to tax, survey and regulate international commerce, libertarians and true conservatives know to fear this all the more. Commerce is everything and the power to control commerce is the power to control everything. Extend this power worldwide and you’ll begin to understand why conservatives might be nervous: they traditionally hold American sovereignty higher than any international institution.
Combined with the ability to conduct climate-policy-fueled insider trading, it’s no wonder that conservatives are hesitant to move forward. Globally moving forward on this policy confers the international leftist order the ability to micromanage economies from the comfort of obscure international institutions. Enable this and watch in wonderment as western economies collapse in controlled demolitions. Just watch and remind yourself that you “saved the planet” every time you see another economic crisis like Athens, Greece.
A Warning to Liberals, Inspired By Pragmatism
With our powers combined … we summoned a slow, painful demolition of western economies. Ironically, we’re now living in third-world nation status and hating every minute of it. But hey, we saved the planet, didn’t we? Or did we…?
Perhaps greater than the power to influence economies through international climate policy is the power to compel nations to disclose information about their economic activities. Yes, the Paris Agreement is implemented as a protocol, which means that member nations simply need to conform to specific reporting requirements without necessarily exposing their internal specifics via a global reporting mechanism. However, this means that each member nation’s independence and competitiveness becomes limited. To understand the specific mechanics of the Paris Agreement, it’s crucial to actually read it, regardless of your leanings on the issue of climate. The Paris Agreement or something like it is inevitable, but actual discussion of the specifics is crucial, as a framework established by the likes of Paris cannot so easily be undone once it gains momentum. Shoving our heads in the ground like ostritches isn’t going to help anyone. That’s a warning that applies equally to the right and the left.
Further, this international autherity for taxation, quantification and regulation of commerce represents the possibility of transition towards a centerpiece for true global one-world government. As such, it should thoroughly scrutinized by everyone. As a potential mechanism for transition to one-world government, it is lunacy for conservatives to remain uninvolved. Imagine if it’s actually an intermediate step in transition towards one-world government and conservatives remained completely uninvolved…
By the way, I’d like to mention that I have the ability to unite both the left and right to a degree exhibited and unseen by anyone else on the planet. I imagine a better world, where Americans on the left and right cooperate to make America great again.
The potential for abuse is unreal. The data on resource utilization and demand is incredibly valuable for both reading and driving trends. It’s impossible for people on the left and right to not have considered this. Still, it seems to be left out of the mainstream discussion. This is a matter of sovereignty and enormous ethical risk.
Massive engineering efforts to terraform land will become necessary to support the population of earth. Water will become the new oil and there isn’t nearly enough of it. Aquifers around the world are already strained and we’ll need massive engineering projects to provide fresh water for crops and settlements. LA is running out of freshwater.
Fresh water requires irrigation, which comes from meltwater, groundwater and rain: there is a finite amount of this, actually. Seawater must be desalinized first, otherwise it can render land inarable, so that constrains valid designs for terraforming projects. As large centralized drains on energy, desalinization projects will tend to be powered with renewables. Desalinization will tend to lower sea levels, which could raise the proportion of pollutants to sea water, unless its not enough to counter the increase from melting polar ice.
Interestingly, one can map the anticipated effect of freshwater availability. If you look at the differential in water consumption as a proportion of underground freshwater reserves remaining, you’ll identify markets who will need renewable-powered desalinization in order to produce local food, etc. So you can anticipate where these projects will be needed, how badly they’ll need them and when. One can anticipate slight increases in aggregate to the cost of living in specific areas because of changes in freshwater requirements. Therefore, you can anticipate this component’s magnitude in relation to real estate price changes over time for specific areas.
The next section of International Trends 2020 concerns the smartgrid.
“This is all coming to you from the 9th level of Dante’s Inferno, reserved for traitors and whence only the falsely crucified may emerge.” – Dante